We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 10 August 13
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR US COAL INDUSTRY CHANGES TO STABLE FROM NEGATIVE
Moody's Investors Service has changed its outlook for the US coal industry to stable from negative, the rating agency says in a new report, "U ...
Saturday, 10 August 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY TO BE CRUCIAL AGAIN IN PROVIDING SUPPORT TO THE DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
We appear to have forgotten demolition activity this year, with the Baltic Dry Index gaining traction in the latter part of the second half and emer ...
Friday, 09 August 13
US PRODUCED 4.00 PERCENT LESS COAL ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.00 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 08 August 13
HANDY : NO POSITIVE SENTIMENT FOR THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
No positive sentiment for the Far East market. There are a number of ships coming open in SE Asia this week and owners rating mid/high USD 8k ...
Thursday, 08 August 13
MALAYSIA HOSTS THIRD ANNUAL ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release : The third Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group (ASBCUG) conference convenes Sept. 30-Oct. 3 at the Eastern & Orie ...
|
|
|
Showing 4171 to 4175 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
