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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 13 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 30.61 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 30.61 per cent week on week to 2.95 million mt for ...
Monday, 12 August 13
GBCE SUCCESSFUL IN UPGRADING LOW RANK INDONESIAN COAL ON INDUSTRIAL SCALE
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) has annoused that, the company has successfully upgraded 2,426 tonnes of low rank 4,018 kcal NAR Ind ...
Monday, 12 August 13
INDIA - SAFE SHIPMENT OF IRON ORE FINES FROM INDIAN PORTS - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
As Members may be aware, in 2009 two ships, the ‘Asian Forest’ and the ‘Black Rose’, capsized and sank following the liquefa ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS : FLAT ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery flat on day due to holidays in Indonesia, Malaysia & ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA CONTINUED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was soft this week with all indices down , the reason could be long weekend holidays in Indonesia, Singapore and M ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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