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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 22 August 13
PANAMAX : PERIOD MARKET IS STILL BEING LED BY STRONGER SENTIMENT IN THE FFA'S - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
This week started slowly as expected. Indo biz now rate APS around 7k +60k to china and around 8k+80k to India. However, there are some ships ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time ar ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
RATES FOR CAPES MOVED DECISIVELY NORTH THIS WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com - Right when the BDI seemed ready for another dive below the 1000 points level, the Dry Bulk market made significant comeback this week ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL 19.15 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 19.15 per cent week on week to 2.39 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
CAPESIZE RATES MORE SENSITIVE TO DEMAND - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com : Approximately 71.50 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, 900,000 tons (-1%) less than a week ago, Commodore R ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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