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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 16 September 13
WHAT RECOVERY MEANS FOR THE CAPESIZE MARKET - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: The simple fact that capesize rates have been able to increase above the $9,000/mark and become much more responsive to changes in car ...
Monday, 16 September 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: STABLE TO STEADY
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 16 September 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAP STRUGGLING TO FINDS THE RIGHT PATH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 0.75 percept month on month on Friday 13 Septe ...
Sunday, 15 September 13
CAPE FREIGHT RATES RISE ON HIGH DEMAND AND TIGHT AVAILABILITY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The BDI, Cape and Panamax indices are continued to rise and saw a steep surge with average index in these segments up around 25 pct w ...
Friday, 13 September 13
US COAL OUTPUT SLIPS 3.34% ON-WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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