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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUED TO ADVANCE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market continued to advance at a very fast pace, with the BDI closing off the week north ...
Tuesday, 17 September 13
BUMA PRODUCED 3.57 PERCENT MORE COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: BUMA has removed totaled 25.20 million bcm of overburden to produce 2.90 million tons coal in August 2013. BUMI produced 3.07 percent ...
Tuesday, 17 September 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED ABOUT 27 PERCENT MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 27.26 per cent week on week to 3.01 million mt for ...
Tuesday, 17 September 13
TAIPOWER INVITES BIDS FOR SUPPLY OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.050 million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open tende ...
Tuesday, 17 September 13
ORPHEUS SECURES SIGNIFICANT INFRASTRUCTURE DEAL THROUGH ACQUISITION OF SOUTH KALIMANTAN PORT CAPACITY
COALspot.com : Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX: OEG) of Australia has today announced that, it has executed a binding agreement with the proprietor of S ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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