We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 29 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FELL ON MONTH AND WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 3.93 percept month on month on Friday 27 September 2 ...
Friday, 27 September 13
TAIWAN'S FORMOSA TO IMPORT 140K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q4
COALspot.com : Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for 140,000 mt of bituminous coal for delivery in the Q4 for its China plant.
Ac ...
Friday, 27 September 13
CAPESIZES REGAINING PART OF THEIR FORMER GLORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The latest dry bulk market rally has been nothing short of spectacular, with freight rates more than doubling over the past few weeks. This growth h ...
Friday, 27 September 13
US PRODUCED 19.30 MMST OF COAL IN SEVEN DAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.30 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUE WITH STRONG RATES IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Feast rates are still firm, some fresh stems entered the market. Vessels trading around $15k passing Singapore for coal to India, and a bit l ...
|
|
|
Showing 4096 to 4100 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
