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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with t ...
Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always b ...
Monday, 30 September 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME CONTINUES TO SLIP
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 8.38 per cent week on week to 2.67 million mt fo ...
Monday, 30 September 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES TOUCHING US$ 18K FOR A TRIP TO NOPAC - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market continued to remain firm, BDI and the Panamax index up week ended 27 September 2013.
The cape index was fell to ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 2014 DELIVERY SWAP GAINED $1.19 M-O-M
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
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