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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 10 February 14
Q1 2015, API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AROUND $ 2 HIGHER THAN Q2 14 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 2.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 77.28 per mt as on Frid ...
Monday, 10 February 14
SUPRAMAX STILL AT AROUND US$ 5K + BB 50K DELIVERY KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO INDIA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.71 pct and closed at 1091 points week ended 7 February 2014. The BDI seemed to reach the bottom as the cape inde ...
Saturday, 08 February 14
U.S PRODUCED 84.5 MMMST OF COAL IN JANUARY; 2.05% UP MONTH ON MONTH, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 07 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON ' REVERSE' MODE DUE TO CHINESE HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its uninspiring mood throughout yet another week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) hovering slightly above the 1,000-poi ...
Thursday, 06 February 14
INDONESIA'S BAN ON THE EXPORT OF RAW MINERAL ORES COMES INTO FORCE - INCE & CO
COALspot.com: On 12 January 2014, the ban on the export of unprocessed mineral ores came into effect in Indonesia. This ban enforces the Mining Law ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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