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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 06 February 14
THE WORLD LARGEST COAL EXPORTER SHIPPED AROUND 35.90 MMT OF COAL IN DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the Global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $2* billion worth ...
Thursday, 06 February 14
PANAMAX: FAR EAST IS ALMOST ABSENT AND ATLANTIC ON SLOW STEAM
Handy
Due to ongoing Chinese New Year the market is still quiet. Slowly we can see some fresh coal cargos entering the market with second half Feb/ ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week as activity ex-Far East disappeared into the Chinese holidays and owners id ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: Let's take a break from market prospects, numbers, order book etc. and shed some light on the conclusions of ...
Tuesday, 04 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS HIT NEW HIGH OF 3.53 MMT
COALspot.com: In the week ended 3 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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