We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 17 February 14
Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED $ 2.21 HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 3.16 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.12 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 16 February 14
SUPRAMAX : THE FAR EAST/SE ASIA CHARTER RATES FIRMED UP
COALspot.com: The freight market had a mixed reaction this week with BDI increased by 1.37 pct and closing at 1106 points on Valentine day. The cape ...
Friday, 14 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION STILL SLIPPING
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to mov ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the ba ...
|
|
|
Showing 3851 to 3855 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
