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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 20 February 15
U.S. PRODUCED AROUND 19.2 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 19 February 15
PANAMAX: NOPAC AND AUSSIE ROUNDS ARE DONE IN LOW/MID $ 4000; TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA CLOSER TO THE $5000 MARK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has not seen any firming rates in front of the Chinese New Year and still suffering on low activity in both hemi ...
Wednesday, 18 February 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO RECOVER IN LATE 2015 - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Strong trade growth, moderating fleet development and deployment of new fuel efficient vessels are expected to lead to a recovery in dry bulk shipp ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
WHO PAYS THE SUEZ CANAL FEES? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This was an appeal from an arbitration award on a point of construction in relation to the wording of an addendum to a ch ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
BUOYANT WAVES IN RECENT YEARS: GLOBAL SHIP INVESTMENT SINCE THE CRASH - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anxiety about fleet expansion is a recurring feature of world shipping markets. Within the global maritime community, worries about the vast amount ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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