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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR POSITIVE MOMENTUM, BUT PROSPECTS REMAIN DIM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) inched a bit higher over the past couple of sessions and the Chinese are returning to the market after a week long hi ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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