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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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