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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS: STEAMING FORWARD - CLARKSONS
Coal-fired power stations comprise around 60% of India’s power output, and with domestic supply issues and favourable international coal pric ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
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Monday, 02 March 15
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Monday, 02 March 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT OF KOMIPO TO IMPORT 140K OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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