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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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