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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 December 11
MINER TOBA BARA SEJAHTRA PLANS IPO IN 1ST HALF OF 2012 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Coal miner Toba Bara Sejahtra is aiming high next year, hoping to capitalize on renewed bullish sentiment in the lo ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
TIMAH PLANS TO BOOST ITS COAL PRODUCTION TO TWO MILLION TONS PER ANNUM - SOURCES
COALspot.com - Timah plans to boost its coal production to two million tons per annum. The company also expects to acquire coal concession with mini ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
BORNEO RESOURCE INVESTMENTS LTD. FINALIZES ACQUISITION OF INTEGRA PRIMA
COALspot.com - Borneo Resource Investments Ltd., announced that it has finalized the acquisition of an additional 1,300 hectare coal mining concessi ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
BERAU COAL SCOUTS US$1.61 BIO SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), that is 85% owned by London-listed company Bumi Plc, estimates a ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched closer to the 2,000 mark on Monday, with Panamaxes rebounding firmly and leading the gains. As a result, the industry&rsq ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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