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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 December 11
MINER TOBA BARA SEJAHTRA PLANS IPO IN 1ST HALF OF 2012 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Coal miner Toba Bara Sejahtra is aiming high next year, hoping to capitalize on renewed bullish sentiment in the lo ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
TIMAH PLANS TO BOOST ITS COAL PRODUCTION TO TWO MILLION TONS PER ANNUM - SOURCES
COALspot.com - Timah plans to boost its coal production to two million tons per annum. The company also expects to acquire coal concession with mini ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
BORNEO RESOURCE INVESTMENTS LTD. FINALIZES ACQUISITION OF INTEGRA PRIMA
COALspot.com - Borneo Resource Investments Ltd., announced that it has finalized the acquisition of an additional 1,300 hectare coal mining concessi ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
BERAU COAL SCOUTS US$1.61 BIO SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), that is 85% owned by London-listed company Bumi Plc, estimates a ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched closer to the 2,000 mark on Monday, with Panamaxes rebounding firmly and leading the gains. As a result, the industry&rsq ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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