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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 December 11
MINER TOBA BARA SEJAHTRA PLANS IPO IN 1ST HALF OF 2012 - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Coal miner Toba Bara Sejahtra is aiming high next year, hoping to capitalize on renewed bullish sentiment in the lo ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
TIMAH PLANS TO BOOST ITS COAL PRODUCTION TO TWO MILLION TONS PER ANNUM - SOURCES
COALspot.com - Timah plans to boost its coal production to two million tons per annum. The company also expects to acquire coal concession with mini ...
Wednesday, 14 December 11
BORNEO RESOURCE INVESTMENTS LTD. FINALIZES ACQUISITION OF INTEGRA PRIMA
COALspot.com - Borneo Resource Investments Ltd., announced that it has finalized the acquisition of an additional 1,300 hectare coal mining concessi ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
BERAU COAL SCOUTS US$1.61 BIO SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), that is 85% owned by London-listed company Bumi Plc, estimates a ...
Tuesday, 13 December 11
CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES LEAD DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched closer to the 2,000 mark on Monday, with Panamaxes rebounding firmly and leading the gains. As a result, the industry&rsq ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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