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Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 15 September 11
BOTSWANA COAL AND ENERGY CONFERENCE 2011
Press Release - Botswana Coal and Energy Conference 2011 | 29-30 November 2011 | Gaborone. Botswana represents Africa’s exciting new coal and ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGING FURTHER UP THE SCALE, CLOSING IN ON 2,000 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was up once again yesterday, reaching 1,927 points, or 1.375 higher on the day. Thus, it has kept its rising trend established d ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
INDO STRAITS BAGS 2.4 MILLION TON COAL TRANSPORTATION CONTRACT FROM ARUTMIN
COALspot.com - PT Indo Straits Tbk (PTIS) bagged a contract to tranship about 2.40 million tons of coal over an initial period of 6 months fro ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
DUTA PERTIWI DISCOVERS COAL RESERVE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Tbk (DPNS) yesterday steeply jumped 24.56% to Rp710 a share after the company discove ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
GOVT SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT $116.26 PER TON
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has set the September 2011 coal reference price at US$ 116.26 per ton slightly ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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