We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 09 September 11
SUPRA BARA SECURES $20 MILLION LOAN - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, Coal miner PT Supra Bara Energi says it has secured a US$20 million loan facility from BNP Paribas to buy heavy equi ...
Friday, 09 September 11
CAPESIZE CAN SECURE USD 17-18K SHORT PERIOD - FEARNBULK
Handy
The US Gulf has remained relatively steady, slightly more activity in the South Atlantic with owners aiming for low to mid USD 20k´s f ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
UKRAINES COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 8% - IFANDP
Industrial fuels & power reported that, Ukraine will increase its coal output by about 8% this year compared to last year, said the country&rsqu ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY COMES TO AN END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was widely expected by analysts and shipbrokers alike, the latest rally of the dry bulk market came to a halt yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Inde ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
TRADA MARITIME BUYS GUNUNG BARA UTAMA
Insider Stories reported that, PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) has purchased convertible bonds issued by PT Awesome Coal from Zakia Limited. The memora ...
|
|
|
Showing 5091 to 5095 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
