We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 20 September 11
MTD INAUGURATES ITS COAL TERMINAL IN JAVA ISLAND
Press Release – MTD Group of Malaysia, one of prominent key players in the development of infrastructure in Malaysia, today inaugurated their ...
Tuesday, 20 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSING ITS EDGE, RETREATING AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After a surge during the past couple of weeks, which saw Capesize earnings boosted and the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) reaching levels of year high and c ...
Monday, 19 September 11
CHINA IMPORTS MORE THAN 10 MMT INDO COAL IN AUGUST 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal exports dropped 1.642 million tons in August compared to July exports. Indonesia exports 29.662 million tons of coal ...
Monday, 19 September 11
INDOMOBIL ENTERING INTO COAL MINING BUSINESS
COALspot.Com- PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk, part of, one of Indonesia's largest conglomerates, to enter into mining industry ac ...
Sunday, 18 September 11
THE COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA, OUT OF INDONESIA LIKELY TO PICK UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend until midweek almost touching 2,000 points, however towards second half of the week the ...
|
|
|
Showing 5071 to 5075 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
|
| |
| |
|
