We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 13 September 11
CAPITAL COSTS OF INDIAN COAL MINING PROJECT - AN ANALYST VIEW
By Mr Dipesh Dipu, Director - Consulting (Mining), Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Private Limited
The coal mining sector that has been opened par ...
Tuesday, 13 September 11
INDONESIAS COAL SECTOR EYES 2012 BOOM - JG
The Jakarta Globe, Indonesian English language News paper reported that, Coal production is set to surge next year as coal miners bolster their busi ...
Tuesday, 13 September 11
DRY BULK RALLY MAINTAINS MOMENTUM AT START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept its upward momentum at the start of the week, as the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 2.07% ...
Monday, 12 September 11
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS ALLOCATED MORE COAL FOR 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian government has increased the domestic market obligation allocation to 82.07 million tons of coal for 2012, which is 4 perc ...
Saturday, 10 September 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market continued the upward trend during last week with BDI crossing 1,800 points and closing at 1,838 points up by 5.63 ...
|
|
|
Showing 5086 to 5090 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
|
| |
| |
|
