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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 09 September 11
SUPRA BARA SECURES $20 MILLION LOAN - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, Coal miner PT Supra Bara Energi says it has secured a US$20 million loan facility from BNP Paribas to buy heavy equi ...
Friday, 09 September 11
CAPESIZE CAN SECURE USD 17-18K SHORT PERIOD - FEARNBULK
Handy
The US Gulf has remained relatively steady, slightly more activity in the South Atlantic with owners aiming for low to mid USD 20k´s f ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
UKRAINES COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 8% - IFANDP
Industrial fuels & power reported that, Ukraine will increase its coal output by about 8% this year compared to last year, said the country&rsqu ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY COMES TO AN END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was widely expected by analysts and shipbrokers alike, the latest rally of the dry bulk market came to a halt yesterday, with the Baltic Dry Inde ...
Thursday, 08 September 11
TRADA MARITIME BUYS GUNUNG BARA UTAMA
Insider Stories reported that, PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) has purchased convertible bonds issued by PT Awesome Coal from Zakia Limited. The memora ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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