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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 07 February 11
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL EXPORTS SURGE, BUOYED BY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA AND INDIA
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) announced today that 2010 exports have exceeded the last two years’ performance, said in a re ...
Monday, 07 February 11
RBCT SHIPPED 28.67 PERCENT LESS COAL IN JANUARY
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 4,389,925 MT of coal in January 20 ...
Sunday, 06 February 11
THE PANAMAX & SUPRAMAX FUTURES FOR 2011-2013 WAS AT AROUND US$ 16,500 & US$ 15,000 PER DAY RESPECTIVELY
COALspot.com - With the Chinese new year holidays this week, the market has been fairly quite as expected.
The BDI saw a bigger drop compared to ...
Saturday, 05 February 11
INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER HAS SIGNED A DECREE FOR COAL TRANSPORTATION PERMITS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com - Minister of Energy, Darwin Minister Saleh said, that, he had signed a decree for transportation and sale of coal, which was the ...
Saturday, 05 February 11
ANCHORAGE LOADING POINT MOVED TO MUARA JAWA
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Transportation Republic Indonesia has announced that, the loading point at Muara Berau, East kalimantan h ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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