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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 02 February 11
BAYAN TO SUPPLY COAL TO TP UTILITIES LTD
Insider Stories has reportd that, Indonesia's one of the leading coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) owned by businessman Dato' Low Tuck ...
Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvi ...
Monday, 31 January 11
S. SUMATRA COAL RAILWAY TO BE COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, despite land acquisition problems, state coal mining company PT Bukit Asam is upbeat that the development of a railw ...
Monday, 31 January 11
COAL MINER PTBA TO DRIVE OUTPUT WITH ACQUISITIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, State coal company Perusahaan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam said its output would increase 34 percent to 17.6 million ...
Saturday, 29 January 11
PRESSURE ON SHIPPING MARKET MAY CONTINUE UNTIL MID FEBRUARY 2011
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and saw a drop of about 5 pct this week closing at 1370 points.
In May 2010 the BDI touched 4,209 ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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