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Thursday, 13 January 11
DRY BULK RATES HIT NEW MULTI-MONTH LOWS ON AUSTRALIAS FLOODS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Floods in Australia’s Queensland has seriously disrupted coal shipments and together with a flood of vessels has pushed freight rates for dry bulk carriers to new multi-month lows. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index fell further yesterday to just 1,453 points, losing 1.82% on the day, while the suffering Capesize segment retreated by a further 4.77%.
The BDI has now recorded 21 straight losing sessions, losing almost 34% of its value. According to calculations from John Cotzias, head of N.Cotzias Shipping Group, in 58 sessions spanning at just less of three months, there have been only 10 days, during which the index was positive.
“The Cape index is counting 12 falling days and has overall lost in this period close to 40% of its volume. BDI is currently below levels of 5 Feb 2009 when the index was rising” said Mr. Cotzias. The market hasn’t seen such low levels since November of 2002, except of course the October 2008 market crash.
In a separate analysis, BIMCO’s shipping analyst Peter Sand said that all in all – the worst flooding in Queensland for more than 50 years “is not only bad for Australia, it's also bad for shipping as volumes on coal and iron ore go down considerably - and more vessels are free on the market putting pressure on the spot market for vessels. Average Capesize time charter rate that has been falling since end of November is now down at USD 11,266 per day trading lower every day” said Sand. He went on to state that iron ore which is exported out of West Australia is not directly affected yet even though that area has received much rain also. Lower steel production and thus also lower seaborne volumes of the two key dry bulk commodities is set to impact the market negatively over the next months. Australia is the world's largest overall coal exporter ,No. 2 in thermal coal exports after Indonesia but second to none in coking coal exports. Australia is key global coking coal supplier accounting for 60% of global seaborne exports. Within thermal coal Australia accounts for 20%. Thermal coal is used for power generation and heating, while coking coal is used in the production steel. As we have already seen, coal customers will try to find other ways to satisfy their demand for thermal coal but the real trouble is coking coal - as it is very hard to get from elsewhere. Shortage of Australian coking coal means that the worlds steel producers, primarily located in Asia, can be forced to cut the production of steel and with it also the demand for iron ore. ”A slowdown in steel production and iron ore demand is toxic to dry bulk shipping in general and for the larger vessels, Capesize and Panamax in particular. The iron ore contract prices for Q1-2011 have already been set at 7% higher than the previous quarter - but spot iron ore prices can still fluctuate and will move south on lower demand. China imports 40-50% of its coking coal from Australia. Japan, the world’s largest coking coal importer is heavily impacted also. The flooding may see contract prices for coking coal hiking significantly due to spot prices going sharply up as a result of the tight market. A part of the mechanism behind the contract prices is the spot price development. This may result in coking coal prices moving from USD 225 per tonnes in Q1-2011 up to USD 270-300 per tonnes according to several commodity analysts.
When the mines call force majeure - the steel mills must go to the spot market for coking coal - at a much higher price than the contract price for this important steel production ingredient - if they can get it at all. Alternative sources of coking coal are the US and Canada but reports are that the tight market has impacted prices also there, leading to higher commodity prices. So if coking coal spot goes up on tight supply - iron ore spot price can go down as a consequence of lower demand. A price hike in coking coal will increase the
production cost for steel - in a market already running on low margins” said BIMCO’s analyst.
So where will it go from here? “It is a string of events that cause shipping demand out of Australia to go down. Moreover the market place is plentifully supplied with tonnage so the fact that some of the commodities will be supplied from sources further away will only have very limited impact on the market. The first quarter of 2011 - do not hold great prospects for the dry bulk market - mainly because the oversupply of vessels is getting too heavy even for the "normal" inefficiencies of the market to make impact on the freight rates. The Australian situation is set to affect the market for at least a of couple months - meaning that the situation outlined above will stay a drag on the overall market and freight rates for some time” concluded Sand.
Talking about the potential overcapacity, Cotzias said that there is a total of over 3,500 dry bulk carriers on order pending until 2014 of a total of 250 million tons dwt. “These orders are split chronologically as follows: 1,854 ships are due for 2011 making up a total of 128 mil dwt, 1,106 ships due in 2012 of 87 mil dwt and 360 ships of 30 mil dwt due for 2013-2014. In total there is a massive orderbook only on the Bulkers section and we should not understate the fact that 2011 faces us with more than 55% of the total orderbook and that we should also include in this 114 orders of 4mil dwt that are “carried forward” from 2010”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 11 February 11
DRY BULK MARKET HEATING UP ON FRESH CARGO DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market is on a high this week, with owners of smaller vessels turning their attention towards the spot market, in order to take advanta ...
Thursday, 10 February 11
SUPRA RATES IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER US$ 6K BSS N. CHINA DELIVERY FOR INDO-INDIA AND THAILAND ROUNDS - FEARNBULK
Handy
Atl is still weak with little fresh enquiry and an accumulation of spot tonnage.Owners are reluctant to send tonnage thru Suez due to uncert ...
Thursday, 10 February 11
BUKIT ASAM EXPECTS ABOVE RP 3 TRIO PROFIT
The state-owned coal miner PT Tambang Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) expects to reach 2011's net profit above Rp 3 trillion (US$ 336,322,568) from above Rp2 ...
Wednesday, 09 February 11
INDONESIA ALLOWED 60 COAL TRADING COMPANIES TO EXPORT COAL
COALspot.com - A temporary ban imposed on coal traders in January has lifted this week. As of today 60coal trading companies were allowed to resume ...
Tuesday, 08 February 11
INDIA'S SIMHAPURU TARGETS S.AFRICAN COAL - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, India's Simhapuri Energy , a unit of the Madhucon Group , wants to buy new or existing collieries in South Africa fro ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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