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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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