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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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