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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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