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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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