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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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