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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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