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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Wednesday, 20 January 10
NALCO SEEKS CONSULTANT FOR $4 BILLION INDONESIAN SMELTER, PLANT
National Aluminium Co., India’s second-biggest producer of the metal, called for bids for a consultant on its proposed aluminum smelter and co ...
Wednesday, 20 January 10
NTPC PLANS TO SET UP ARM FOR ACQUIRING COAL ASSETS ABROAD
NTPC, the world’s second-largest independent power producer (IPP), plans to set up a new entity for acquiring coal assets abroad to secure fue ...
Wednesday, 20 January 10
CEMENT FIRMS TO BUY POWER PLANT COAL ASH
CEBU, Philippines - Cement companies in Cebu are interested to buy the coal ash that will be produced from the coal-fired power plant in Toledo City ...
Tuesday, 19 January 10
CHINA TO INCREASE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS - WEN
China's Premier Wen Jiabao said on Tuesday that China will appropriately increase imports of thermal coal to ease the country's power shortages.
...
Tuesday, 19 January 10
CESC TO BUY 100,000 MT OF INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com (India): CESC, India’s one of the largest and oldest private power producer is expected to issue a closed tender any time this we ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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