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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Friday, 22 January 10
ENERGY ADVISORY COUNCIL MULLS - COAL EXPORT BAN
The National Energy Council, which advises the House of Representatives and the president on energy issues, has begun to debate a proposal to ban ex ...
Friday, 22 January 10
MERCATOR EYES MORE COAL MINES IN INDONESIA
India’s second-largest private shipping company Mercator Lines is looking at acquiring more coal mines in Indonesia as part of its strategy&nb ...
Friday, 22 January 10
BHAKTI ENERGI IN TALKS OVER COAL VENTURES IN KALIMANTAN
PT Bhakti Energi Persada, one of Indonesia’s biggest miners of brown coal, revealed on Thursday that it was in talks to form a joint venture w ...
Friday, 22 January 10
SHENHUA ENERGY 09 YIELDED 210MN TONS COMMODITY COAL
China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd. yielded 210 million tons of commodity coal in 2009, hiking 13.2% year on year, the Chinese energy titan announced tod ...
Friday, 22 January 10
JSW ENERGY TO INVEST RS 4,500 CRORE IN COAL MINES ABROAD
The Sajjan Jindal-promoted JSW Energy is planning an investment of Rs 4,500 crore (US$ 978,260,869) to acquire coal mines abroad and another of Rs 1 ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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