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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Saturday, 13 February 10
COAL INDIA 2010/11 COAL IMPORTS TO JUMP - EXEC
Coal imports by state-run Coal India Ltd are likely to soar to 6-10 million tonnes in fiscal 2010/11 from an expected 1.5-1.7 million tonnes in the ...
Saturday, 13 February 10
RULES MAY FREE $10B OF MINING PROJECTS IN INDONESIA
The government announced on Friday that it had issued two implementing regulations for the new Mining Law that will clear the way for the developmen ...
Saturday, 13 February 10
INDONESIA OFFERS TAX INCENTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY
Indonesia is offering tax incentives to develop renewable energy projects, including geothermal energy, to cut dependency on fossil fuels, a decree ...
Friday, 12 February 10
MECHEL EYES 2010 COAL OUTPUT AT 28-29 MLN T
Russian steel and coking coal producer Mechel expects coal output to reach 28-29 million tonnes this year, returning to pre-crisis levels thanks to ...
Friday, 12 February 10
TATA POWER: QUARTERLY BLIP
Although the company’s revenues dipped in the December quarter, its long-term story is intact.
Lower power generation and realisations saw ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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