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Friday, 05 March 10
COAL RALLY ON CHINESE DEMAND SPARKS $59 ESTIMATES
 Bloomberg reportd that, A rally that has boosted coal prices 21 percent from their lows last year may have further to go as the coldest U.S. winter in nine years and China’s record imports increase demand and drain stockpiles.
Prices will average $59.28 a ton this year, up 17 percent from $50.75 as of Feb. 19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange and 41 percent more than last year’s low in April, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles at utilities swelled last year after a mild summer and the economic recession reduced power demand.
China, the world’s biggest coal user, imported 16.4 million metric tons in December, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, customs data show. Record snowfall buried parts of the U.S., the second-biggest coal consumer, including Dallas and the mid- Atlantic states. The cold weather is reducing a surplus and giving producers Patriot Coal Corp., Consol Energy Inc. and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. power to negotiate higher prices.
“We’re definitely bullish for a confluence of factors,” said Jeremy Sussman, senior coal analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co., a New York-based boutique investment bank. “We can see the light at the end of the tunnel in the U.S. The weather has definitely had an impact. The international market is front and center.”
Consol, the second-biggest U.S. coal company by market value, will jump 18 percent to $59 by the end of this year in New York trading, according to the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Alpha, the third-biggest U.S. coal producer by output, will climb 22 percent to $57.46, analysts forecast.
Patriot Rises
Patriot rose 35 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.62, today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest price since Jan. 21. Consol added 3 cents, to $49.94. Alpha slipped 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $46.94. Massey Energy Co., the sixth- biggest U.S. coal producer, climbed 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $44.39.
Hedge funds have been buying energy producers, mining companies and airlines, a sign that managers from Louis Bacon to David Tepper are convinced the economy will accelerate. Duquesne Capital Management LLC, led by Stanley Druckenmiller, bought 6.2 percent of Massey, whose earnings are projected to double this year.
The increased U.S. and Chinese consumption prompted Michael Dudas, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, to raise his 2010 price target for coal to $70 per ton, a figure he originally forecast for 2011.
Coal Inventories
“The weather and better electricity generation have pushed stockpiles lower than people anticipated,” said Dudas, who has followed coal for a decade. “It’s really just accelerating that price.”
Utilities have 57 days worth of coal on hand, down from more than 70 days at the start of winter, according to Genscape Inc., a Louisville, Kentucky-based energy data provider.
“The pricing increases are real,” Consol Chief Operating Officer Nicholas Deiuliis said in a telephone interview. “If you look at the pricing increases we’re seeing now in regard to future sales, they have not only floored or held their bottom, they are starting to spike up.”
Coal is used to generate electricity and produce steel, making it a barometer for the economy. U.S. steel capacity utilization tumbled to 68 percent as of Feb. 15 from 91 percent in August 2008, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute, as unemployment climbed to 10 percent and consumers reduced spending 3 percent on appliances in December from a year earlier.
Prices Slide
The U.S. summer from June through August was 7 percent cooler than the same period a year earlier, reducing demand for power to run air conditioners, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Prices plunged 66 percent to $48.15 per ton at the end of 2009 from a record $143 on July 1, 2008, the steepest decline in at least eight years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 17 percent gain forecast by analysts would be the largest since 2007.
Utilities amassed a record 207 million tons as demand for coal to generate electricity dropped 12 percent through Sept. 30, according to the most recent U.S. Energy Department data. Consumption for 2009 was projected to be below 1 billion tons for the first time since 1995. The government will release final figures in March.
Producers cut back output as demand slumped and that’s having an impact even as demand rises. U.S. coal production will slump about 2.8 percent this year just as exports increase 5.6 percent, the Energy Department said Feb. 10.
Record Snowfall
The 2009-2010 winter season, which began Dec. 1, is the coldest since the 2000-2001 season and ranks in the coldest third of winters in the past 115 years, according to Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground Inc., a private forecaster based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The federal government shut down for four days this month after Washington was hit with a storm that set a seasonal snow total of 54.9 inches, shattering a 110-year-old record.
For St. Louis-based Patriot, Pittsburgh-based Consol and Alpha, based in Abingdon, Virginia, the frigid conditions are providing relief.
“The cold weather is the best thing they can get right now that’s not a full economic recovery,” said Daniel Scott, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. “People are no longer scared to talk about thermal coal.”
Interest Rates
The risk to forecasts for higher coal prices is a glut of natural gas in the U.S. and prospects for the economy to stumble as the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates for the first time since June 2006. The Fed last week raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent to encourage banks to borrow in private markets.
“If the economy tanks again, that changes the outlook,” according to James Rollyson, senior coal analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “The economy and particularly this year natural gas prices are the variables. Coal lost market share to natural gas because we averaged $4 gas for the year.”
The U.S. relies on coal for about half of its power generation, compared with about 20 percent for gas.
Gas has to stay above $5 per million British thermal units to prevent it from being more attractive to utilities at the expense of coal. Natural gas for March delivery fell 14.9 cents, or 3 percent, to $4.895 per million Btu. Rollyson estimates that through November coal lost about 40 million tons worth of demand to gas.
Chinese Imports
China’s National Energy Administration said Jan. 25 that a coal shortage will persist through March. The country has maintained the record import pace set in December because of the country’s coldest winter in at least 50 years, according to Sutthichai Kumworachai, an analyst with KGI Group in Bangkok.
The country’s gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007, after the government introduced a $586 billion stimulus package that spurred energy consumption.
China’s appetite for coal led to imports from South Africa, diverting supplies from Europe and creating an opportunity for eastern U.S. coal companies such as Alpha Natural Resources, Consol and Patriot to increase sales across the Atlantic Ocean, Brean Murray Carret’s Sussman said.
This year Consol has sold almost 500,000 tons of coal into Asian markets, a 23 percent increase from the 400,000 tons that it shipped to the region for the first time last year, Dan Zajdel, a company spokesman said. As more companies follow, the exports will squeeze U.S. utilities, said Pearce Hammond, an analyst at Simmons & Co. International in Houston.
Lower Temperatures
“That’s essentially robbing utilities of coal,” Hammond said. “They don’t need it right now, but in the future they will.”
From the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast through the Gulf Coast into Texas, temperatures are averaging 4 degrees to 8 degrees below normal, said Tom Kines, a senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather.com in State College, Pennsylvania.
“That is pretty significant,” he said.
The cold is having an impact as measured by heating-degree- day values, which have been trending higher along the East Coast and across the South, according to the National Weather Service. The value is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from a base of 65 degrees and is designed to show energy demand.
New York Weather
This month, New York’s heating-degree-day value is 572, or 36 greater than normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Coal prices will get a larger boost if the U.S. economy can sustain its recovery, Alpha Chief Executive Officer Kevin Crutchfield said in an interview. The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
“That would be the best thing in the quiver, a bona-fide economic recovery, especially on the industrial side,” Crutchfield said. “If you see any type of economic stimulus and economic recovery at all, that would hasten the recovery even faster.”
Source: Bloomberg - Mario Parker
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Monday, 15 February 10
INDONESIA IN TALKS TO RESOLVE BANPU MINE CLOSURE
Indonesia is seeking to resolve a land permiting problem resulting in the closure of a coal mine in Kalimantan operated by a unit of Thailand's top ...
Monday, 15 February 10
PVT ENTRY IN COAL MINING TO BE DELAYED
Entry of private players in coal mining will be delayed. Contrary to expectations, the coal ministry will not move in the Budget session a bill that ...
Sunday, 14 February 10
NEWCASTLE STEAM COAL TRADES AT US$ 91 TO US$ 92
Reuters reported that prompt cargo prices for coal delivered into Europe were largely unchanged recently after a day of subdued trading.
European ...
Saturday, 13 February 10
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE WEAK THIS WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com (Singapore): The freight market continued to be weak this week. There have been quite a few spot vessels open Far east and have been fo ...
Saturday, 13 February 10
INDONESIA ISSUES NEW MINING REGULATIONS
Indonesia has issued two new regulations under its mining law to allow firms to start obtaining mining permits, in a move that should increase certa ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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