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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Wednesday, 10 February 10
ANGLO AMERICAN TIPS COAL PRICE RISE AFTER RAIN, AUSTRALIAN SAYS
Anglo American Plc expects coking coal contract prices to rise after weeks of heavy rain in Queensland state cut output by as much as 10 million met ...
Wednesday, 10 February 10
KANGAROO RESOURCES COMMENCES MINING AT MAMAHAK COKING COAL PROJECT
International coal producer Kangaroo Resources has kicked off mining at its second Indonesian coal operation, the Mamahak Coking Coal Project in Eas ...
Wednesday, 10 February 10
CHINA DENIES CLIVE PALMER'S COAL DEAL
ONE of China's biggest government-owned companies yesterday repudiated mining billionaire Clive Palmer for overstating what he said was Australia' ...
Tuesday, 09 February 10
INDIANS SAY SEEKING COAL BARGAINS VIA INDEX PRICES
* Indonesian cheaper than S.African - traders
* End-users wait for price falls before tendering
Indian coal traders responsible for the bulk of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 10
EURO COAL-PROMPT SLIDES WITH OIL PRICES
* April S.African cargo trades at $83.50/T FOB, unchanged
* April DES cargo trades at $74.75 a tonne, down $1/T
* Russia's Kuzbassrazrezugol sees ...
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Showing 6011 to 6015 news of total 6871 |
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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