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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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