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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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