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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a steady recovery of Chinese demand for crude.
U.S. crude exports are set to climb to 140.4 million barrels in March, versus 108.2 million barrels in February, amid a surge in domestic crude inventories, which currently hover close to 480,063 million barrels, almost 30,000 million barrels above the 5-year average and by 66.2 million barrels up from December 2022. More specifically, the surge occurred despite an increase in refinery rates after a strong maintenance season, while it was primarily driven by an increase in Gulf Coast crude inventories, which climbed to their highest since April 2021. China and Europe have been reportedly the biggest importers of U.S crude in March. As Europe and Asia look for supplies, U.S. crude oil exports, which have been bolstered by a change in trade flows following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to rise this year providing support to the tanker market.
Europe’s demand for U.S. crude is forecast to remain elevated in the coming weeks, as we head toward the peak summer season for crude buying. Moving forward, we should expect to see a boost in the USG to Europe (TD25) Aframax freight rates, which eased earlier this month due to the increased vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf. In addition, following January’s record of 385,133 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude exports to Europe shipped on VLCCs, we should expect to see some support in VLCC freights, as medium and heavy sour grades from the U.S. to Europe are increasingly being booked on larger sizes, a trend established back in 2022.
In the meantime, market sentiment firmed following the release of OPEC+’s report last week, which raised the forecast of Chinese oil demand to 710,000 barrels per day (bpd), amid expectations of surging jet fuel and diesel consumption. China’s crude imports remain robust and above the 40 million MT mark for eight consecutive months since August 2022. In March, China’s crude oil imports are assessed at 47.27 million MT, a 4.4% m-o-m increase. Imports from the U.S. are set to hit a 2.5-year high, pivoted by a recovery in demand and competitive prices compared to Middle Eastern supplies. Crude imports from the U.S. are forecast to remain elevated in 2Q and 3Q, amid a widening WTI/Dubai, which last week widened to 10$ per barrel, the widest since August 2022. In the coming weeks, we could see continued Chinese purchases of crude because of rising domestic demand and amid a drop in domestic inventories following increased refining demand.
VLCC fundamentals are unquestionably the most positive, driving rates up, as they were the first to stabilize as a result of recovering Chinese demand. Robust U.S. exports to China have been particularly beneficial for VLCC vessels. VLCC freight rates hover well above their 2022 average, while ton-miles remain elevated, underpinned by strong demand in the USG to China (TD22) route.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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