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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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