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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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