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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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