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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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