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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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