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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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