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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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