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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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Showing 161 to 165 news of total 6871 |
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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