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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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