We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
|
|
|
Showing 91 to 95 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
