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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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