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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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