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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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