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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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