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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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