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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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