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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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