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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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